Back to 1938

When Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu recently talked of the historical parallels between today's Iran and Hitler's Germany, many brushed it off as just right-wing rhetoric. But over the past weekend, in two separate magazine interviews, two grand old men of the left, author AB Yehoshua and former Meretz minister and leading legal academic Amnon Rubinstein, talked of their growing pessimism concerning Israel's future. The interview with Professor Rubinstein, written by Israel's leading journalist of ideas, Ari Shavit, unfortunately was not translated by Ha'aretz (AB Yehoshua was interviewed by the Hebrew-only Yediot Ahronot), and so here's an excerpt from the interview. Asked whether he thought Israel's destruction was a possibility, Professor Rubinstein answered: "Yes. Destruction is a possibility. I believe in Israeli society. But when it faces such threats? And when the international community stands to one side? It brings me in my thoughts back to 1938/9. There is a link here, at least associatively. The West sees a danger and does nothing. And Jews are not regarded as worth thinking about. And there's antisemitism. After years in which I thought antisemitism had disappeared, it's returned. And you can see that it's something very deep, very satanic." Professor Rubinstein went on to say that he still sided with the left on the issue of the "disaster of the settlements" and the need to reach an agreement on a two-state solution with the Palestinians. "But the starting assumption of the Zionist left is that Israel is strong. My friends are always telling me: 'Why are you so worried, Israel is the strongest power in the Middle East.' But my assumption is the complete opposite. I see Israel as a weak state in the Middle East. I think Israel is weak and vulnerable... Israel is strong militarily, but it is weak in all other areas, demographically, diplomatically and geopolitically." Describing Iran as a strong, regional power, Professor Rubinstein warns: "For the first time since 1948, we are facing an existential military threat." The interview makes for uncomfortable, but obligatory reading.

This post was written by Jeff Barak

Comments

[Yehuda Erdman]

Professor Rubinstein is correct on all three counts, and many of us on the Zionist left share his feeling of gloom. In order to continue one must be optimistic but this resembles the proverbial ostrich with its head buried in the sand.
The war in Lebanon demonstrates some of Israel's weaknesses. I have described this situation using the Chess term "zugzwang", which was coined in German about 100 years ago. It is when you are playing against a skilled opponent and reach a position on the board where no matter what move you make, your situation gets worse.
In Chess one can resign and try again in another game or play a different opponent, but this luxury does not exist in life. Many people believe Hizbulla in the example I gave, played its hand very cleverly and enticed Israel into a trap. The war demonstrated Israel had no effective military solution short of all-out war in Lebanon, which would have enraged the whole world. Other commentators maintain that by counterpunching Hizbulla, Israel faced up to their insufferable provocation and it was not a defeat but a test that had to be met to deter future attacks.
However, as Professor Rubinstein pointed out, Hizbulla's backers in Iran are busily developing nuclear weapons and the president of Iran has also threatened to wipe Israel off the map. Any sensible observer can then surmise that Iran will use nuclear warheads on missiles which can reach Israel. President Chirac of France made the fatuous remark that if Iran had 1 or 2 nuclear warheads does it really matter? (he withdrew his comment very quickly). Unfortunately if 1 or 2 nuclear missiles land in say the Tel Aviv area, it matters enormously to Israel. I presume retaliation on Iran would be even more deadly.
Let me finish by asking a question, would it be a good move for Israel to reduce its nuclear stockpile soon in order to reduce tension in the Middle East and discourage proliferation?