If you’re looking for good news, look away now. Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons is only a matter time, according to Dr Zvi Shtauber, the director of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. He said Teheran was determined to achieve this aim and “I don’t see the same determination on the other side to stop them.” Speaking at a press conference this week to mark the publication of the institute’s Middle East Strategic Balance 2005-2006, Dr Shtauber also said this summer’s Lebanon war damaged Israel’s deterrent image and exposed weaknesses in the IDF and the decision-making process in Israel. Dr Shtauber, a former Israeli ambassador to the UK and a retired brigadier-general, noted that the “cost of a nuclear Iran will be much greater than the cost of military action against Iran,” but he also noted the difficulty of taking action against Teheran. Giora Eiland, the former head of Israel’s National Security Council and a member of the INSS management, said that if Israel were to attack Iran’s nuclear plants, it could only do so with the prior political agreement of the United States and with American military support. And if the news surrounding Iran isn’t bad enough, the prestigious INNS report also said that the threats to Middle East security and stability in 2006 had worsened due to the lack of progress in the resolution of the Israel-Palestinian conflict, the absence of significant achievements in the war against global terror and Islamic extremism, and the failure of American efforts to stabilise the situation in Iraq. Yiftah Shapir, one of the authors of the report, argued that while Israel enjoyed military superiority over its neighbours, both in terms of equipment and personnel, some of this superiority was “irrelevant for the type of conflict Israel faces.” Stressing the vulnerability of the Israeli home front, he said that Israel’s failure to combat Hizbollah’s short-range rockets during the Lebanon war had been noted by the Palestinians, who were now seeking similar weapons. It's not a report to be read at bedtime.
This post was written by Jeff Barak
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